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Hurrican Dorian- Message #4

Sat, 08/31/2019

Good afternoon Island residents,

THE TONE OF THIS MESSAGE IS QUITE SERIOUS AND YOU ARE URGENTLY ADVISED TO BEGIN PLACING YOUR HURRICANE PLAN INTO EFFECT

Town staff and the Mayor continue to monitor the development of Hurricane Dorian. At this time the key items to note are:

  • As of the 11am Advisory Hurricane Dorian is categorized as a strong Cat 4/almost Cat 5 storm on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale.  The National Hurricane Center is calling for additional intensification which makes Dorian an extremely dangerous and major hurricane.
  • The forward speed of the Hurricane Dorian is moving slowly to the west at just over 8 mph.
  • Because of an anticipated turn to the north after crossing the Bahama island chain, the potential for Hurricane Dorian to have significant impacts on South Carolina are greater and more likely today than reported yesterday.  Several models have the storm landfall in northern Florida/southern Georgia then tracking northward; others have it tracking along the eastern coastline – it is too early for an accurate prediction. The position of the curve north will dictate impact to South Carolina. Notwithstanding wind, this looks to be a major rain and flooding event for the Island. It may be early next week before a more reliable prediction of the track is available.
  • Governor McMaster has issued Executive Order 2019-26 declaring a STATE OF EMERGENCY in South Carolina. The Governor and staff are digesting the most current tracking information in consideration of any evacuation order – continue to monitor local media outlets for this information.
  • Mayor O’Neil has issued a Proclamation today declaring a STATE OF EMERGENCY for the Town of Sullivan’s Island.
  • The Charleston area finds itself at the center of the cone of uncertainty for the path of Hurricane Dorian on most models.
  • IT IS PRUDENT AT THIS TIME TO PREPARE FOR HURRICANE LANDFALL AT/NEAR OR PASSING IN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SULLIVAN’S ISLAND.
  • Continue to monitor local media for changes in the storm track and notification of evacuation plans.

This is the latest information available based on advisories/publications from the National Hurricane Center and the Town’s participation in meetings with Charleston County Emergency Management Department as of 12:30PM Friday.  Note that while the format is the same as previous messages, information has changed. Please read this message in its entirety.

  • Hurricane Dorian – Current Conditions and Projections from National Hurricane Center Advisory 29 at 11:00am
    • Location: 26.0N 73.4W
    • Maximum sustained winds at 150 mph
    • Present movement is to the W at 8 mph
    • Central pressure is 27.91” or 945 mb
    • The track on the storm for the southeastern United States is very difficult to predict at this time. While it may come ashore in northern Florida, Hurricane Dorian can still turn north depending upon the upper level high pressure steering current - the location of landfall is still subject to change
  • What to expect
    • The NHC anticipates the core of Dorian to move over the Atlantic north of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and move near the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday.
    • Based on the 11am observations:
    • Landfall could be in central to north Florida late Monday/early Tuesday 09-02/03-19.
    • While several of the tracking models are in agreement, the storm has yet to enter the warm water of the Caribbean. Likewise, there are weather systems that can impact the tracking which could result in a more northward swing resulting in more severe impact for South Carolina.
    • At the present course, Sullivan’s Island could experience increased wind up to 30mph by late Monday early Tuesday.
    • Rainfall should begin to increase Monday.
    • Take note of the tide cycle and prepare for local shallow flooding with somewhat higher tides and north/northeast wind; tides for Sullivan’s Island will range from 6.3’ to 6.8 feet at flood slack water with a driving north/northeast wind.
    • Swell height and rip current will begin to increase once Hurricane Dorian moves past the Bahama islands.
    • Significant rainfall on Sullivan’s Island next week likely.
    • Although subject to change based on forward speed and steering currents, Sullivan’s Island could expect to see effects of hurricane conditions as early as Tuesday to Thursday of next week.
       
  • As a resident what should you be doing at this time
    • Continue to monitor local media outlets for the latest information on the hurricane; the storm can still take a more northerly track toward Sullivan’s Island.
    • Begin to implement your family hurricane plan and know what you will do if the storm tracks north.
    • Exercise caution when boating, swimming or surfing. The prevailing north/northeast wind has resulted in very strong rip currents running parallel to the beach on Sullivan’s Island.  Yesterday 5 people nearly drowned before being rescued by the Fire Department using the jet skis. REFRAIN OR USE CAUTION IF YOU ENTER THE OCEAN. Conditions around the sandbars and inlets can be treacherous.
    • Be vigilant of local coastal flooding.
    • Do not place any bulk debris or landscaping materials street side for Wednesday pick-up until further notice; Friday 8-30-19 household garbage will occur as scheduled but remember to move your cart away from the street Friday evening.
    • The Fire Station has empty sandbags available.
       
  • What the Town is doing
    • The state of SC, Charleston County and Town of Sullivan’s Island are presently at OPCON 2 – the Municipal Emergency Operations Center has not been activated and staff is standing by in the ready.
    • Town staff and Mayor participate daily in status meetings with SCEMD, Charleston County EMD, NWS-Charleston and a host of other federal, state and local jurisdictions for the latest storm preparations.
    • Preliminary preparations to secure the Town assets have been completed.

 

Please monitor the latest conditions of the hurricane through the local media outlets. The hurricane track still remains somewhat fluid.   

Reverting tomorrow after the regional hurricane meeting.

Regards,
Andy Benke
Town Administrator
Town of Sullivan's Island

NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Dorian Advisory #29 (PDF)
Hurricane Dorian South Carolina State of Emergency- Declared by Governor McMaster- August 31, 2019(PDF)
Hurricane Dorian Sullivan's Island State of Emergency- Declared by Mayor O'Neil- August 31, 2019 (PDF)